June 14th, 2010 - Rutger's Future Home?

Email Tom @ TomO@NJMAX.com

With conference expansion Armageddon running ramped throughout the country these days, nearly every school in America is left wondering where it will end up.  From a New Jersey standpoint, our only major football program is Rutgers University, thus making the Scarlet Knights our main concern.  Rutgers currently plays in all sports in the Big East Conference, which has eight football members (including RU) and eight more non-football members. 

Here is the current Big East Lineup:

To me, the Big East is a good gig for Rutgers.  It is probably the nation’s most powerful basketball conference (both men’s and women’s), and the football is competitive enough where Rutgers has a chance of making a run at winning the conference on a year to year basis.  The Big East already has an automatic bid to the BCS every year, which is a nice little $14 million dollar payout for the conference.

Of the six automatic qualifiers to the BCS, however, the Big East has to be viewed as the weakest.  This is why rumors that the Big Ten may be looking to expand eastward has gotten Rutgers fans thrilled with excitement.  The Big Ten has its own television network, which serves to help the conference produce roughly four times as much revenue as the Big East does per team, per year.  And with the likes of Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State now being joined by Nebraska, the conference has assembled four of the seven winningest football programs in history.    

Now, after reading those statistics, you’re probably wondering why the Big Ten (now 12) would possibly need to expand further.  The answer here is two-fold; First, the Big Ten brass wants to keep up with the PAC10, who is poised this week to add 5 more Big 12 schools, including Texas and Oklahoma, to become a sixteen-team mega-conference.  Big Ten boss Jim Delany originally threw down the expansion gauntlet back in December, and, although they have added Nebraska to get a conference championship game, they do not want to be upstaged, and possibly out-earned financially, by the PAC10, or any other conference.

The second reason for Big Ten expansion eastward is Notre Dame.  As mentioned, Notre Dame currently plays all sports in the Big East conference except football, where they have maintained their tradition as an independent.  It is no secret the Big Ten lusts after Notre Dame, located in the heart of Big Ten country in South Bend, Indiana, with possibly the largest country-wide fan-base of any school.  But the Irish constantly turn down the Big Ten, insisting they will remain independent unless their hand is forced.  Their hand would be forced if their current conference for all other sports, the Big East, were to seize to exist, leaving them with no choice but to join a new conference to find a home for these sports.  This means, if the Big Ten wants Notre Dame, they are going to break up the Big East.

This is where Rutgers comes in, or, at the least, this is where most people in New Jersey like to believe Rutgers comes in.  To break apart the Big East, the Big Ten would have to take two or three schools (plus Notre Dame would make sixteen for the conference).  The Big Ten would obviously want football schools, so that automatically eliminates eight options.  South Florida is too far south, so they are out as well.  Of the remaining candidates, Rutgers is located in the biggest media market, New York.  I would argue, however, that just because Rutgers is in the New York metro area DOES NOT mean Rutgers delivers the New York market.  I live in the New York metro area, and I can tell you from experience that NO ONE watches Rutgers football.  Two of their games last year were broadcast on ESPN360.com for crying out loud.  Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State all do a better job turning on TV’s in New York than Rutgers does, and the Big Ten already has all three of those schools.  I would also argue that Rutgers brings just as much of the New York market as Syracuse and UConn do.  Don’t come crying to me how the Empire State Building lit up red when Rutgers beat Louisville three years ago.  The Empire State Building is a building, not a person, thus it cannot subscribe to the Big Ten Network, thus the Big Ten doesn’t care about it. 

I am not trying to be a hater to RU here, I’m just trying to state the facts.  But just to make my point clear, I’m saying that RUTGERS IS NOT AS DESIRABLE TO THE BIG TEN AS RUTGERS THINKS IT IS.  My point is proven by Nebraska.  How big of a TV jewel is Nebraska?  Well, the state has a zero markets in the US top 50, but the Big Ten chose them anyway.  Why, because of tradition, competiveness, and fit for the conference.  Sorry Rutgers, but those are three things you do not have. 

On the Brightside, however, who in the Big East does have those factors the Big Ten is looking for.  Well, Pitt does, and Pitt offers a natural rival to Penn State in western PA.  To me, Pittsburgh would be the number one choice for the Big Ten from the Big East.  Syracuse and UConn at least have top-tier hoops programs, and I will argue ALL DAY LONG that UConn’s football is AT LEAST just as good as RU’s.  The three remaining schools, Louisville, Cincinnati, and West Virginia all are far from the Big Ten’s academic standards, although WVU’s athletic programs are pretty appealing.  Overall, though, a lack of standout candidates for the Big Ten for sure.  This means, from where I stand anyway, even though I’ve just spend a page practically bashing Rutgers University, they are STILL PROBABLY A PRIME CANDIDATE FOR BIG TEN EXPANSION just by process of elimination. 

Now, although Rutgers probably would not be competitive in, well, anything, save women’s basketball, in the Big Ten, who cares because money rules everything!  As a fan of Rutgers who wants to see the team succeed, I’d root for them to stay in the Big East.  As for what’s best for the university, however, Big Ten Big Ten Big Ten all the way.  Heck, with the added revenue and exposure, who says RU’s programs couldn’t improve and thrive in the Big Ten?  Not to mention the Big Ten is far more stable than the current Big East, so, if you’re Rutgers, you’re hoping for a Big Ten invite.

If Rutgers, along with two other BE schools and Notre Dame, were to join a sixteen team Big Ten, the conference would be divided into two divisions.  With so many historical rivalries in the Big Ten, conference officials may have to get fancy in making divisions to preserve all of them (or at least all the important ones).  Also, competitive balance in each division is a key.  The new Big Ten may look like this (note: this was very difficult, especially having to keep OSU-Michigan together because if they weren’t in the same division they couldn’t play every year):

This scenario doesn’t make a lot of geographical sense, but it makes a ton of competitive sense, as the top six schools in the conference in football (OSU, Mich, ND, Neb, PSU, Iowa) are divided three each in the two divisions.

But no one knows for sure what the heck the Big Ten is going to do.  They may stay at twelve teams, they may raid another conference instead of the Big East, or they may raid the Big East but after reading my blog become persuaded not to take Rutgers (oops).  Therefore, Rutgers and the Big East should be proactive themselves in conference expansion.  And by “proactive” I don’t mean raid CUSA again, as East Carolina and UCF aren’t what I consider “big catches” in the college sports world.  I’m proposing an acquisition of the four remaining Big 12 schools.  This would mean splitting the conference from the Catholic non-football schools, but they just as easily can form their own eight team conference and remain relatively unharmed, as their basketball with Nova and G’Town would still be elite.  As would the new Big East, with the likes of Kansas and K-State, both Top Ten basketball programs last year.  You would have a twelve team league with a conference championship game with divisions that actually make geographical sense, competitive additions in football and monster additions and basketball, as well as exposure to a whole new side of the country.  My proposed new Big East would look like this:

As I’ve said, if you’re Rutgers, you’re hoping Big Ten, but if it doesn’t happen, and don’t be surprised if it doesn’t happen, this conference would be a REAL good alternative.  We will see how it all unfolds…

Most Recent Update
-updated 6.14.2010